Chapter 25, Northern Great Plains

The Northern Great Plains is experiencing unprecedented climate-driven extremes, including severe drought, floods, and wildfires. These changes threaten economic sectors such as agriculture and recreation and affect the health, well-being, and livelihood of the region's residents. While adaptation efforts are underway, climate change creates complex tradeoffs and tests the resilience of the region's residents, especially rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations.

- From chapter 25

This page is in draft form and is currently being reviewed by project partners. For more information about the creation and review process, please see the landing page for the NCA5 Educator's Guide.

Jump to:

  1. Information on using this guide
  2. Educational resources and guiding questions for this region
  3. CLEAN curated pathways to action for the region
  4. NCA5 non-regional chapter connections

Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains:

National Climate Assessment Art X Climate selections

Artist's statement:This work portrays Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana in four time periods between 1920 and 2006, with the glacier losing mass in each painting. The piece considers the marks that humanity leaves on the landscape, reflecting the impact of industrial and colonial activity on those same landscapes. While these paintings deal with impending climate catastrophe, rather than lingering in dystopia they celebrate the sublimity of the landscape by honoring the intricate geological and political webs that shape the identity of a place.


Artist's statement: My drawing depicts 11 endangered species and their different ecosystems found in the Western United States. The most difficult challenge was making this piece cohesive, even across different habitats that normally wouldn't be found together. I live in Boise, Idaho, and am surrounded by wild places that I consider part of my home. I want to ensure that these ecosystems are protected. I hope viewers come away with an appreciation for our Western wild places and the importance of biodiversity and healthy ecosystems threatened by climate change and habitat loss.


Educational resources and guiding questions aligned with the regional Key Messages:

Each Key Message features three guiding questions to help educators navigate these topics with students. Each guiding question includes example lessons and supporting videos. The lessons were taken from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) educational resources database. The videos were selected from reputable sources to support the lessons.

Key Message One: Climate Change Is Compounding the Impacts of Extreme Events

The Northern Great Plains region is experiencing unprecedented extremes related to changes in climate, including severe droughts, increases in hail frequency and size, floods, and wildfire. Rising temperatures across the region are expected to lead to increased evapotranspiration, as well as greater variability in precipitation. Find out more about this key messagehere.

Guiding question one: How does increased variability in precipitation affect runoff in the Northern Great Plains?

Guiding question two: What factors contribute to the increased risk of wildfires in the Northern Great Plains and how have wildfire patterns changed over time in response to climate shifts?

Guiding question three: Which hazards (wildfire, flooding, drought, hail, etc.) are of greatest concern for your community, and what can be done to mitigate or adapt to those hazards?

Key Message Two: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Hazards

Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents, as well as the ecology of the region. As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend. Find out more about this key messagehere.

Guiding question one: In the Northern Great Plains how are human and ecological health threatened by the compounding impacts of climate change?

Guiding question two: What is Solastalgia and which groups are likely to be most prone to it in your community?

Guiding question three: How are invasive species like Cheatgrass and Bluegrass impacting ecological health in your state?

Key Message Three: Resource and Land-Based Livelihoods Are at Risk 

The Northern Great Plains region is heavily reliant on agriculture and resource-based economies, placing livelihoods at risk from the impacts of climate change and related policy. Agriculture and recreation will see some positive effects but primarily negative effects related to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Energy-sector livelihoods will be affected as emissions-reductions policies drive shifts away from fossil fuel sources. Climate change is expected to test the adaptive resilience of the region's residents, in particular rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: Why does climate change have a disproportionate impact on different communities?

Guiding question two: How are the livelihoods of indigenous communities in your state likely to be impacted by climate change?

Guiding question three: Which types of energy does your state use and produce? How is climate change likely to impact both energy consumption and production?

Key Message Four: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions

Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others. Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action. Changes in temperature and precipitation averages, extremes, and seasonality will alter the productivity of working lands, resulting in land-use shifts to alternative crops or conversion to grasslands. Shifts in energy demand, production, and policy will change land-use needs for energy infrastructure. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: What are the economic challenges and opportunities the Northern Great Plains may experience from reducing their reliance on fossil fuels?

Guiding question two: What cultural, structural, and institutional barriers may make climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts more difficult in the Northern Great Plains region?

Guiding question three: Which land-use conversion strategies are possible in and around your community? What trade-offs could be necessary to enable these conversions?

Key Message Five: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform

Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships. Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans. Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: Who are the potential stakeholders from agriculture industries that are involved in climate adaptation plans in the Northern Great Plains region and what are their roles?

Guiding question two: Why is it important to include Indigenous communities and voices in the development of adaptation plans?

Guiding question three: What climate adaptation plans have been created in your community and state? How has traditional ecological knowledge influenced those plans?

Pathways to action for the Northern Great Plains*

*These selections were curated by CLEAN

The following actions and case studies highlight ideas for climate change adaptation and mitigation at multiple scales and are meant to support and inspire students and educators to take steps that address the challenges outlined in this chapter.

Action 1: Incorporating Indigenous peoples' knowledge

Action 2: Improve Cattle Farm Management

Action 3: Reduce Agriculture Impacts

Action 4: Improve Water Efficiency

Looking for more ideas for climate change actions? Explore the National Climate Assessment chapters on adaptation (chapter 31) and mitigation (chapter 32).

National Climate Assessment Northern Great Plains Chapter Connections:

The national climate assessment includes multiple chapters on climate change-specific topics. The chapters and key messages offer ways to further engage with the NCA and find out more information related to the region.

 

Disclaimer: The National Climate Assessment regional resources for educators is written, edited, and moderated by each regional team of contributors. Posts reflect the views of the regional team themselves and not necessarily Climate.gov, NOAA and USGCRP.