Chapter 28, Southwest

Climate change is threatening water resources, increasing challenges to food and fiber production, and compromising human health in the Southwest through drought, wildfire, intense precipitation, sea level rise, and marine heatwaves. These changes are affecting ecosystems, infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and other economic sectors. Effective adaptation will require flexible decision-making and the incorporation of technological innovation with Indigenous and local knowledge.

- From Chapter 28

This page is in draft form and is currently being reviewed by project partners. For more information about the creation and review process, please see the landing page for the NCA5 Educator's Guide.

Jump to:

  1. Information on using this guide
  2. Educational resources and guiding questions for this region
  3. CLEAN curated pathways to action for the region
  4. NCA5 non-regional chapter connections

Key Messages for the Southwest:

National Climate Assessment Art X Climate selections

Artist's statement:The Dust We Will Breathe is a photograph of the drying lakebed of the Great Salt Lake, a graveyard of once underwater mounds made of microbial organisms. Human consumption is mostly to blame for the lake reaching historic lows, which is compounded by climate change and the west's current megadrought. If no drastic changes in consumption are made, the lake will be gone in 5 years. Every day that more lakebed is exposed, we will breathe in more of its toxic dust.


Artist's statement:'california' is a five-layer reductive woodcut that depicts an immense blaze trailing from a mountain range to a burning house. The piece was born in response to the California wildfires. The contrast between the bright flames and the dark sky is representative of the dramatic change between El Niño and La Niña years, which have a cyclical influence on fire in the region. The burning house speaks to the impact wildfires have on people, while the burning plains and mountains comment on the effect fire has on the planet.


Educational resources and guiding questions aligned with the regional Key Messages:

Each Key Message features three guiding questions to help educators navigate these topics with students. Each guiding question includes example lessons and supporting videos. The lessons were taken from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) educational resources database. The videos were selected from reputable sources to support the lessons.

Key Message One: Drought and Increasing Aridity Threaten Water Resources

Climate change has reduced surface water and groundwater availability for people and nature in the Southwest, and there are inequities in how these impacts are experienced. Higher temperatures have intensified drought and will lead to a more arid future; without adaptation, these changes will exacerbate existing water supply–demand imbalances. At the same time, the region is experiencing more intense precipitation events, including atmospheric rivers, which contribute to increased flooding. Flexible and adaptive approaches to water management have the potential to mitigate the impacts of these changes on people, the environment, and the economy. Find out more about this key messagehere.

Guiding question one: What are the sources of water in the Southwest and how will decreasing snowpack impact water use choices?

Guiding question two: Which factors compound to create drought in the Southwest?

Guiding question three: How can states and communities adapt to water shortages on the Colorado River?

Key Message Two: Adaptation Efforts Increase to Address Accelerating Impacts to the Region's Coast and Ocean

Large-scale marine heatwaves and harmful algal blooms have caused profound and cascading impacts on marine coastal ecosystems and economies. Without implementation of adaptation or emissions-reductions measures, human-caused warming will drive more frequent and longer marine heatwaves, amplifying negative coastal effects. Sea level rise, along with associated impacts such as flooding and saltwater intrusion, will have severe and disproportionate effects on infrastructure, communities, and natural resources. The California State Government has applied climate science to planning and decision-making for sea level rise, and multiple regions are moving toward climate-informed and adaptive strategies for fisheries. However, climate planning and adaptation solutions for aquaculture are less clear. Find out more about this key messagehere.

Guiding question one: What structural, cultural, and economic issues arise as a result of rising sea levels?

Guiding question two: Why is it important to prioritize ecosystem conservation approaches rather than species conservation approaches considering the impacts to coastal ecosystems from warming, acidification, and declining water oxygen levels?

Guiding question three: Which communities in California will be most impacted by sea level rise and how can those communities adapt to or mitigate those impacts?

Key Message Three: Increasing Challenges Confront Food and Fiber Production in the Southwest

Continuing drought and water scarcity will make it more difficult to raise food and fiber in the Southwest without major shifts to new strategies and technologies. Extreme heat events will increase animal stress and reduce crop quality and yield, thereby resulting in widespread economic impacts. Because people in the Southwest have adapted to drought impacts for millennia, incorporating Indigenous Knowledge with technological innovation can offer solutions to protect food security and sovereignty. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: What are social and economic barriers to agricultural adaptation in the Southwest?

Guiding question two: What are the challenges to distributing water equitably between urban and rural communities?

Guiding question three: Which new technologies and adaptive practices are likely to support agriculture in the Southwest through the impacts of climate change?

Key Message Four: Climate Change Compromises Human Health and Reshapes Demographics

Increases in extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfire activity are negatively impacting the physical health of Southwest residents. Climate change is also shaping the demographics of the region by spurring the migration of people from Central America to the Southwest. Individuals particularly vulnerable to increasing climate change impacts include older adults, outdoor workers, and people with low incomes. Local, state, and federal adaptation initiatives are working to respond to these impacts. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: What populations are most vulnerable to health risks associated with climate change in the Southwest?

Guiding question two: What adaptation initiatives at the local, state, and federal levels are aimed at responding to the negative health impacts of climate change in the Southwest?

Guiding question three: What determines which communities are considered frontline communities in the Southwest?

Key Message Five: Changes in Wildfire Patterns Pose Challenges for Southwest Residents and Ecosystems

In recent years, the Southwest has experienced unprecedented wildfire events, driven in part by climate change. Fires in the region have become larger and more severe. High-severity wildfires are expected to continue in coming years, placing the people, economies, ecosystems, and water resources of the region at considerable risk. Opportunities for adaptation include pre- and postfire actions that reduce wildfire risk and facilitate ecosystem restoration and include traditional land stewardship practices and the application of Indigenous cultural fire. Find out more about this key message here.

Guiding question one: Why is fire an essential natural process for many ecosystems in the Southwest?

Guiding question two: How will changes in wildfire patterns impact vegetation in your state?

Guiding question three: Which factors are likely to exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of wildfire in your community?

Pathways to action for the Southwest*

*These selections were curated by CLEAN

The following actions and case studies highlight ideas for climate change adaptation and mitigation at multiple scales and are meant to support and inspire students and educators to take steps that address the challenges outlined in this chapter.

Action 1: Conservation Agriculture

Action 2: Improve Water Efficiency

Action 3: Coastal Restoration

Action 4: Distributed Energy Storage

Looking for more ideas for climate change actions? Explore the National Climate Assessment chapters on adaptation (chapter 31) and mitigation (chapter 32).

National Climate Assessment Southwest Chapter Connections:

The national climate assessment includes multiple chapters on climate change-specific topics. The chapters and key messages offer ways to further engage with the NCA and find out more information related to the region.

 

Disclaimer: The National Climate Assessment regional resources for educators is written, edited, and moderated by each regional team of contributors. Posts reflect the views of the regional team themselves and not necessarily Climate.gov, NOAA and USGCRP.