Initial Publication Date: March 8, 2021

2018 NCA Resources for US Caribbean Region

Contributors

Regional Chapter Editor:

Lee Frankel-Goldwater, PhD Candidate, University of Colorado, Boulder

Chapter Reviewers, 2018:

Ruperto Chaparro, Director, Programa Sea Grant, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Pablo Méndez-Lázaro, University of Puerto Rico
Jess. Zimmerman, University of Puerto Rico, Isabel K. Parés-Ramos, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Ernesto L. Diaz, Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Coastal Zone Management Program, Kristin Wilson Grimes, University of the Virgin Islands / Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, Isatis M Cintron Rodriguez, The State University of New Jersey, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences

NCA Education Resources for the U.S. Caribbean Region

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. This report collects, integrates, and assesses observations and research from around the country, helping us to see what is actually happening and understand what it means for our lives, our livelihoods, and our future. It is important that these findings and response options be shared broadly to inform people and communities across our nation. Climate change presents a major challenge for society. This report advances our understanding of that challenge and the need for the American people to prepare for and respond to its far-reaching implications.

It contains information that will help educators and students gain a deeper understanding of climate science through the Our Changing Climate section of the 2018 NCA report and 2017 supporting Climate Science Special Report (CSSR). Engineering is addressed throughout, both from the standpoint of climate change impacts and solutions, however, the Mitigation and Adaptation sections contain the most relevant information. Finally, the Frequently Asked Questions section has useful information as it relates to an Introduction to Climate Change, Climate Science, Temperature and Climate Projections, Climate, Weather, and Extreme Events, Societal Effects, and Ecological Effects.

Chapter Background

"Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) are rich in biodiversity, cultural heritage, and natural resources. More than 3.5 million inhabitants depend on the region's natural resources and environmental services for their well-being, livelihoods, local economies, and cultural identities. Changing climate and weather patterns interacting with human activities, are affecting land use, air quality, and resource management and are posing growing risks to food security, the economy, culture, and ecosystems services."

"The vulnerability of the U.S. Caribbean region is influenced by global, regional, and local factors. The region is sensitive to large-scale patterns of natural variability in both the Atlantic and Pacific tropical basins, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Climate variations due to these large-scale patterns directly impact the U.S. Caribbean because the islands largely rely on surface waters and consistent annual rainfall to meet freshwater demands. The high percentage of coastal areas relative to the total island land area means that a large proportion of the region's people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. As on islands worldwide, there are strong socioeconomic and cultural ties to diminishing marine resources and services, as well as economic dependence on tourism and imported goods. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region's gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas." (Complete background and related figures available at NCA, 2018, U.S. Caribbean Chapter)

Using this Guide:

The NCA Education Resources for the U.S. Caribbean Region features 1) guiding questions, 2) key figures, 3) related chapters from the report, 4) lesson plans, 5) videos for all of the NCA key messages for the region, and 6) related U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Case Studies. Teachers can have students explore the toolkit case studies to see how people are building resilience for their businesses and in their communities in the region. This page contains information that will help educators and students gain a deeper understanding of climate science and the implications for the region.

Chapter Table of Contents with Section Links:

Key Message 1: Freshwater

Key Message 2: Marine Resources

Key Message 3: Coastal Systems 

Key Message 4: Rising Temperatures 

Key Message 5: Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events 

Key Message 6: Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration 

Key Message 1: Freshwater

Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the century, constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which can increase freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity.

Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely alter the distribution of ecological life zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks
  • Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks
  • Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk
  • Emerging Issues

Key Message 2: Marine Resources

Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial and recreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats can result in changes in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the loss of live coral cover, sponges, and other key species.

These changes will likely disrupt valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island economies.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks
  • Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks
  • Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk
  • Emerging Issues

Key Message 3: Coastal Systems

Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion, likely leading to diminished beach area, loss of storm surge barriers, decreased tourism, and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being. Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks
  • The U.S. Caribbean Economy
  • Cultural Heritage
  • Critical Infrastructure, Property, and Real Estate
  • Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk
  • Emerging Issues

Key Message 4: Rising Temperatures

Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve and operate. Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects on organisms and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases in agricultural productivity, changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks to human health, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer cool nights and more frequent hot days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S. Caribbean.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Linkage Between Climate Change and Regional Risks
  • Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks
  • Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk
  • Emerging Issues

Key Message 5: Disaster Risk Response to Extreme Events

Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean, and some extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates will likely affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation, and agricultural productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration and integrated planning, preparation, and responses across the region.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Future Climate Change Relevant to Regional Risks
  • Challenges, Opportunities, and Success Stories for Reducing Risk

Key Message 6: Increasing Adaptive Capacity Through Regional Collaboration

Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss of life, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand the region's collective ability to achieve effective actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme events, and assist in recovery efforts.

Sub-categories under this key message:

  • Shared Risks and Opportunities
  • Effectiveness of Cross-Regional Collaboration for Building Resilience
  • Reducing Risks and Supporting Adaptation: Gaps, Opportunities, and Benefits