The Very Simple Climate Model Activity

The Very Simple Climate Model Activity
https://scied.ucar.edu/activity/very-simple-climate-model-activity

Randy Russell, Lisa Gardiner, Windows to the Universe

This is a teaching activity in which students learn about the connection between CO2 emissions, CO2 concentration, and average global temperatures. Through a simple online model, students learn about the relationship between these and learn about climate modeling while predicting temperature change over the 21st century.

Activity takes about two class periods plus an additional two periods for assessment if included. Computer access is necessary.

Learn more about Teaching Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness»

See how this Activity supports the Next Generation Science Standards»

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Middle School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 1

MS-ESS3.D1: Human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming). Reducing the level of climate change and reducing human vulnerability to whatever climate changes do occur depend on the understanding of climate science, engineering capabilities, and other kinds of knowledge, such as understanding of human behavior and on applying that knowledge wisely in decisions and activities.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 9

Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change, Patterns, Cause and effect, Scale, Proportion and Quantity

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Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change, Patterns, Cause and effect, Scale, Proportion and Quantity

MS-C1.2: Patterns in rates of change and other numerical relationships can provide information about natural and human designed systems

MS-C1.3: Patterns can be used to identify cause and effect relationships.

MS-C1.4: Graphs, charts, and images can be used to identify patterns in data.

MS-C2.2: Cause and effect relationships may be used to predict phenomena in natural or designed systems.

MS-C3.3: Proportional relationships (e.g., speed as the ratio of distance traveled to time taken) among different types of quantities provide information about the magnitude of properties and processes.

MS-C4.2: Models can be used to represent systems and their interactions—such as inputs, processes and outputs—and energy, matter, and information flows within systems.

MS-C4.3: Models are limited in that they only represent certain aspects of the system under study.

MS-C5.4: The transfer of energy can be tracked as energy flows through a designed or natural system.

MS-C7.3: Stability might be disturbed either by sudden events or gradual changes that accumulate over time.

Science and Engineering Practices: 9

Developing and Using Models, Analyzing and Interpreting Data, Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking, Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions, Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information, Asking Questions and Defining Problems

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MS-P1.1: Ask questions that arise from careful observation of phenomena, models, or unexpected results, to clarify and/or seek additional information.

MS-P2: Developing and Using Models

MS-P4.1: Construct, analyze, and/or interpret graphical displays of data and/or large data sets to identify linear and nonlinear relationships.

MS-P4.3: Distinguish between causal and correlational relationships in data.

MS-P5.1: Use digital tools (e.g., computers) to analyze very large data sets for patterns and trends.

MS-P6.1: Construct an explanation that includes qualitative or quantitative relationships between variables that predict(s) and/or describe(s) phenomena.

MS-P6.2: Construct an explanation using models or representations.

MS-P6.5: Apply scientific reasoning to show why the data or evidence is adequate for the explanation or conclusion

MS-P8.2: Integrate qualitative and/or quantitative scientific and/or technical information in written text with that contained in media and visual displays to clarify claims and findings.

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High School

Performance Expectations: 1

HS-ESS3-5: Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 2

HS-ESS2.D1: The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.

HS-ESS2.D4: Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 6

Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

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Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

HS-C4.2: When investigating or describing a system, the boundaries and initial conditions of the system need to be defined and their inputs and outputs analyzed and described using models.

HS-C4.3: Models (e.g., physical, mathematical, computer models) can be used to simulate systems and interactions—including energy, matter, and information flows—within and between systems at different scales.

HS-C4.4: Models can be used to predict the behavior of a system, but these predictions have limited precision and reliability due to the assumptions and approximations inherent in models.

HS-C5.2: Changes of energy and matter in a system can be described in terms of energy and matter flows into, out of, and within that system.

HS-C7.1: Much of science deals with constructing explanations of how things change and how they remain stable.

HS-C7.2: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.

Science and Engineering Practices: 10

Asking Questions and Defining Problems, Developing and Using Models, Planning and Carrying Out Investigations, Analyzing and Interpreting Data, Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions, Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information

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HS-P1.2: ask questions that arise from examining models or a theory, to clarify and/or seek additional information and relationships.

HS-P2.3: Develop, revise, and/or use a model based on evidence to illustrate and/or predict the relationships between systems or between components of a system

HS-P2.6: Develop and/or use a model (including mathematical and computational) to generate data to support explanations, predict phenomena, analyze systems, and/or solve problems.

HS-P3.5: Make directional hypotheses that specify what happens to a dependent variable when an independent variable is manipulated.

HS-P4.1: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.

HS-P6.1: Make a quantitative and/or qualitative claim regarding the relationship between dependent and independent variables.

HS-P6.2: Construct and revise an explanation based on valid and reliable evidence obtained from a variety of sources (including students’ own investigations, models, theories, simulations, peer review) and the assumption that theories and laws that describe the natural world operate today as they did in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

HS-P6.4: Apply scientific reasoning, theory, and/or models to link evidence to the claims to assess the extent to which the reasoning and data support the explanation or conclusion.

HS-P8.2: Compare, integrate and evaluate sources of information presented in different media or formats (e.g., visually, quantitatively) as well as in words in order to address a scientific question or solve a problem.

HS-P8.5: Communicate scientific and/or technical information or ideas (e.g. about phenomena and/or the process of development and the design and performance of a proposed process or system) in multiple formats (i.e., orally, graphically, textually, mathematically).

Grade Level

Middle (6-8)
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High School (9-12)
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Ideal for middle school students, could also be used as a brief intro to climate modeling at high school or a homework assignment.

Topics

Greenhouse Gases
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Climate Literacy

This Activity builds on the following concepts of Climate Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Energy Literacy

This Activity builds on the following concepts of Energy Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Excellence in Environmental Education Guidelines

1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:G) Drawing conclusions and developing explanations
Other materials addressing:
G) Drawing conclusions and developing explanations.

1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:F) Working with models and simulations
Other materials addressing:
F) Working with models and simulations.

2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.1 The Earth as a Physical System:A) Processes that shape the Earth
Other materials addressing:
A) Processes that shape the Earth.

Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

Engages students in thinking about climate models and more specifically what is provided as background for this model. Ideally, students would know something about climate models.
Suggestion of how to start lesson: Review notes for the very, very simple climate model and compare to other models.
Extension idea: Compare to Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change report.
Educator needs to be very careful in using this simple model in class; explain the limitations of models in general without giving students (incorrect) arguments to question the science behind climate change. Use the document in appendix about accuracy and uncertainty in climate models.
Using the model with directed questions would be more effective in the real teaching setting. Ideally educator designs a worksheet with student-centered questions (especially important for middle school students).
Students with low math skills might struggle and might need special guidance.
Students may become confused between global climate change (i.e. warming) and the regional climate change that impacts society, which can be warming or cooling. This should be clarified.

About the Content

Introduces students to climate models and provides educator with opportunity to teach about the limitations and the value of climate models. It provides a good opportunity to introduce climate models and modeling in general.
Good and well-written background information for students and educators provided.
Doesn't do a lot in terms of helping students understand climate modeling.
Arithmetic that goes into the model is not given or transparent and makes it a "black box" (the guide only says that for relation between CO₂ concentration and temperature the correlation is about 3° C for each doubling of CO₂ concentration, no information on the link between emissions and concentrations).
Educator should stress that model outcome is a prediction and may not be what actually happens
Comment from expert scientist: Although the students learn that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises whenever emissions are greater than zero, they don’t learn about the concept of residence time of CO₂ in the atmosphere. A simple climate model might not account for the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere; however, this should be stated up front rather than in the background information. It would be useful to include some basic background information on the concept of residence time and how this may affect the results.

About the Pedagogy

Well-designed lesson plan and visually appealing model and results, which allow the students to follow the scientific process (define scenarios, compare independent/dependent variables, interpret and present results).
Extensions are very valuable, and it is great that there is a piece that offers solutions and doesn't leave the students hopeless.
Using the model, developing scenarios, testing them, and presenting results will engage students of different learning styles.
Making sense of the graph with 3 different y-axes might be a challenge to some students.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Very easy to use.

Related URLs These related sites were noted by our reviewers but have not been reviewed by CLEAN

Link to the Simple Climate Model simulation used in this activity.

Entered the Collection: February 2012 Last Reviewed: July 2016

Jump to this Activity »

Middle School (see details)

Middle School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 1

Cross Cutting Concepts: 9

Science and Engineering Practices: 9

High School (see details)

High School

Performance Expectations: 1

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 2

Cross Cutting Concepts: 6

Science and Engineering Practices: 10

Grade Level

Topics

Climate Literacy

Energy Literacy

Excellence in Environmental Education Guidelines

Teaching Tips

About the Content

About the Pedagogy

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Related URLs These related sites were noted by our reviewers but have not been reviewed by CLEAN

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