Scientists’ Concerns Challenge Conservative Sea-Level Rise Projections

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Scientists’ Concerns Challenge Conservative Sea-Level Rise Projections
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2013/12/scientists-concerns-challenge-conservative-sea-level-rise-projections/

Yale Climate Forum

This video considers the current estimates of sea level rise as possibly too conservative and discusses more recent data on ice melt rates coming from Antarctica and Greenland, showing rates of melt at up to 5 times as rapid. Scientists discuss what levels and rates of sea level rise have occurred in the past, including the Pliocene, which demonstrated 1m rise every 20 years.

Video length is 6:22 min.

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See how this Video supports the Next Generation Science Standards»

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Middle School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 6

MS-ESS2.C1: Water continually cycles among land, ocean, and atmosphere via transpiration, evaporation, condensation and crystallization, and precipitation, as well as downhill flows on land.

MS-ESS2.C3: Global movements of water and its changes in form are propelled by sunlight and gravity.

MS-ESS2.C4: Variations in density due to variations in temperature and salinity drive a global pattern of interconnected ocean currents.

MS-ESS2.D1: Weather and climate are influenced by interactions involving sunlight, the ocean, the atmosphere, ice, landforms, and living things. These interactions vary with latitude, altitude, and local and regional geography, all of which can affect oceanic and atmospheric flow patterns.

MS-ESS2.D3: The ocean exerts a major influence on weather and climate by absorbing energy from the sun, releasing it over time, and globally redistributing it through ocean currents.

MS-ESS3.D1: Human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming). Reducing the level of climate change and reducing human vulnerability to whatever climate changes do occur depend on the understanding of climate science, engineering capabilities, and other kinds of knowledge, such as understanding of human behavior and on applying that knowledge wisely in decisions and activities.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 2

Systems and System Models

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High School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 6

HS-ESS2.C1: The abundance of liquid water on Earth’s surface and its unique combination of physical and chemical properties are central to the planet’s dynamics. These properties include water’s exceptional capacity to absorb, store, and release large amounts of energy, transmit sunlight, expand upon freezing, dissolve and transport materials, and lower the viscosities and melting points of rocks.

HS-ESS2.D1: The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.

HS-ESS2.D3: Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate.

HS-ESS2.D4: Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

HS-ESS3.D1: Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.

HS-ESS3.D2: Through computer simulations and other studies, important discoveries are still being made about how the ocean, the atmosphere, and the biosphere interact and are modified in response to human activities.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 2

Systems and System Models

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Systems and System Models

HS-C4.3: Models (e.g., physical, mathematical, computer models) can be used to simulate systems and interactions—including energy, matter, and information flows—within and between systems at different scales.

HS-C4.4: Models can be used to predict the behavior of a system, but these predictions have limited precision and reliability due to the assumptions and approximations inherent in models.

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Middle (6-8)
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High School (9-12)
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College Lower (13-14)
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College Upper (15-16)
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Graduate/Professional
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Topics

Measurements and Observations
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Measuring and Modeling Climate
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Sea Level Rise
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Melting Ice and Permafrost
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Climate Impacts
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Human Responses to Climate
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Climate Literacy

This Video builds on the following concepts of Climate Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Energy Literacy

This Video builds on the following concepts of Energy Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Physical processes on Earth are the result of energy flow

Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

A good video for use with lessons on global warming, ice melt, and sea level rise.
Could be used to prompt students to consider how scientists measure current data, by looking at past events as examples, as well as how scientists continue to monitor data and adjust projections based on new evidence.
A good video to pair with another, older one that outlines an earlier prediction for icecap melting rates.

About the Content

This video describes new evidence that scientists are collecting to show that ice sheets may be more vulnerable than previously believed, which has large implications for sea level rise.
Comments from expert scientist: The video clearly communicates parallel between Pliocene levels of CO2 and modern levels of CO2, and illustrates both graphically and in map form Pliocene coastlines (example: Florida). It shows scientists from all over the world, male & female, showing urgency as they talk about their research findings suggesting that major ice sheets are much less stable than previously presumed.

About the Pedagogy

Good mix of graphics and expert commentary.
Inclusion of ancient scientific data from Pliocene connects ancient climates to modern and demonstrates how Earth has changed over time.
Starts off as somewhat alarmist but continues as a useful resource.
Comments from expert scientist: The video jumps quickly between ideas and therefore might be better for older students.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Best URL http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2013/12/scientists-concerns-challenge-conservative-sea-level-rise-projections/

Entered the Collection: February 2017 Last Reviewed: May 2015

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Middle School (see details)

Middle School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 6

Cross Cutting Concepts: 2

High School (see details)

High School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 6

Cross Cutting Concepts: 2

Grade Level

Topics

Climate Literacy

Energy Literacy

Teaching Tips

About the Content

About the Pedagogy

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