Analyzing the data; "It's time to tell the story" about Buds, Leaves, and Global Warming

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Analyzing the data; "It's time to tell the story" about Buds, Leaves, and Global Warming
http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/schoolyard/Harvard%20Fall%20Leaf%20Study%20Lesson%20Plan-LeTellier-2013-final.pdf

Lise LeTellier, Harvard Forest Schoolyard LTER

In this activity, students explore how the timing of color change and leaf drop of New England's deciduous trees is changing.

Activity takes two 45-minute class periods.

Learn more about Teaching Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness»

See how this Activity supports the Next Generation Science Standards»

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High School

Performance Expectations: 2

HS-ESS3-6: Use a computational representation to illustrate the relationships among Earth systems and how those relationships are being modified due to human activity.

HS-LS4-5: Evaluate the evidence supporting claims that changes in environmental conditions may result in: (1) increases in the number of individuals of some species, (2) the emergence of new species over time, and (3) the extinction of other species

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 4

HS-ESS2.E1: The many dynamic and delicate feedbacks between the biosphere and other Earth systems cause a continual co-evolution of Earth’s surface and the life that exists on it.

HS-LS2.C1: A complex set of interactions within an ecosystem can keep its numbers and types of organisms relatively constant over long periods of time under stable conditions. If a modest biological or physical disturbance to an ecosystem occurs, it may return to its more or less original status (i.e., the ecosystem is resilient), as opposed to becoming a very different ecosystem. Extreme fluctuations in conditions or the size of any population, however, can challenge the functioning of ecosystems in terms of resources and habitat availability.

HS-LS2.C2: Moreover, anthropogenic changes (induced by human activity) in the environment—including habitat destruction, pollution, introduction of invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change—can disrupt an ecosystem and threaten the survival of some species.

HS-LS4.C4: Changes in the physical environment, whether naturally occurring or human induced, have thus contributed to the expansion of some species, the emergence of new distinct species as populations diverge under different conditions, and the decline–and sometimes the extinction–of some species.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 6

Patterns, Cause and effect, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

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Patterns, Cause and effect, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

HS-C1.1: Different patterns may be observed at each of the scales at which a system is studied and can provide evidence for causality in explanations of phenomena

HS-C2.1: Empirical evidence is required to differentiate between cause and correlation and make claims about specific causes and effects.

HS-C2.2: Cause and effect relationships can be suggested and predicted for complex natural and human designed systems by examining what is known about smaller scale mechanisms within the system.

HS-C5.4: Energy drives the cycling of matter within and between systems.

HS-C7.1: Much of science deals with constructing explanations of how things change and how they remain stable.

HS-C7.2: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.

Science and Engineering Practices: 6

Asking Questions and Defining Problems, Analyzing and Interpreting Data, Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking, Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions, Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information

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HS-P1.3: ask questions to determine relationships, including quantitative relationships, between independent and dependent variables

HS-P4.1: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.

HS-P4.2: Apply concepts of statistics and probability (including determining function fits to data, slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient for linear fits) to scientific and engineering questions and problems, using digital tools when feasible.

HS-P5.2: Use mathematical, computational, and/or algorithmic representations of phenomena or design solutions to describe and/or support claims and/or explanations.

HS-P6.2: Construct and revise an explanation based on valid and reliable evidence obtained from a variety of sources (including students’ own investigations, models, theories, simulations, peer review) and the assumption that theories and laws that describe the natural world operate today as they did in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

HS-P8.5: Communicate scientific and/or technical information or ideas (e.g. about phenomena and/or the process of development and the design and performance of a proposed process or system) in multiple formats (i.e., orally, graphically, textually, mathematically).

Climate Literacy

This Activity builds on the following concepts of Climate Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Excellence in Environmental Education Guidelines

1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:C) Collecting information
Other materials addressing:
C) Collecting information.

1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:E) Organizing information
Other materials addressing:
E) Organizing information.

2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.2 The Living Environment:A) Organisms, populations, and communities
Other materials addressing:
A) Organisms, populations, and communities.

2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.2 The Living Environment:C) Systems and connections
Other materials addressing:
C) Systems and connections.

Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

Educator should definitely run through this exercise before introducing it to students.
The Harvard Forest LTER has a manual to assist educators interested in integrating data into their curricula at http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/data/k12/Colburn%202009%20Graphing%20Manual.pdf.
This investigation is not an experiment, so a prediction of which tree loses its leaves earliest in the fall might be more appropriate than asking students to form an hypothesis.

About the Content

Activity has students access and analyze selected phenology data from the Harvard Forest Schoolyard Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) project, to study changes in the growing season of deciduous trees in New England.
The two-year length of the graphing component is not long enough to discern trends. The Harvard Forest database does contain some longer records that would allow for a few more years of data. Even so, none of these records are long enough to suggest a robust trend. Caution students about forming a conclusion based on a short record.
Comments from expert scientist: Very good type of activity to show relationship of vegetation phenology to climate and climate change. It's unclear if the scientific link among vegetation phenology, growing season, and climate change is discussed. This seems mostly an exercise in learning how to graph data - the primary objective is stated as such.

About the Pedagogy

Activity is carefully and thoughtfully written with explicit teacher notes and student directions, background information, and screenshots to guide access to and use of the data; assessment rubric is provided with sample assessments representing honors and IEP-accommodation students.

This resource engages students in using scientific data.
See other data-rich activities

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Educator is integral to initial explanations of this lesson. Once students understand the database and what is expected, they should become more independent.
Students will need computers with Internet access, Excel or or other spreadsheet software, and a printer.

Related URLs These related sites were noted by our reviewers but have not been reviewed by CLEAN

http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/buds-leaves-global-warming

Entered the Collection: February 2017 Last Reviewed: September 2016

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High School (see details)

High School

Performance Expectations: 2

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 4

Cross Cutting Concepts: 6

Science and Engineering Practices: 6

Grade Level

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