Climate Modeling 101

Climate Modeling 101
http://nas-sites.org/climate-change/climatemodeling/

National Academy of Sciences

This resource is a website that is a self-contained, multi-part introduction to how climate models work. The materials include videos and animations about understanding, constructing and applying climate models.

Unit will take at least six class periods.

Learn more about Teaching Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness»

See how this Activity supports the Next Generation Science Standards»

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High School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 5

HS-ESS2.D1: The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.

HS-ESS2.D3: Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate.

HS-ESS2.D4: Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

HS-ESS3.D: Global Climate Change

HS-ETS1.B2: Both physical models and computers can be used in various ways to aid in the engineering design process. Computers are useful for a variety of purposes, such as running simulations to test different ways of solving a problem or to see which one is most efficient or economical; and in making a persuasive presentation to a client about how a given design will meet his or her needs.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 11

Patterns, Cause and effect, Scale, Proportion and Quantity, Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

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Patterns, Cause and effect, Scale, Proportion and Quantity, Systems and System Models, Energy and Matter, Stability and Change

HS-C1.3: Patterns of performance of designed systems can be analyzed and interpreted to reengineer and improve the system.

HS-C1.5: Empirical evidence is needed to identify patterns.

HS-C2.1: Empirical evidence is required to differentiate between cause and correlation and make claims about specific causes and effects.

HS-C2.2: Cause and effect relationships can be suggested and predicted for complex natural and human designed systems by examining what is known about smaller scale mechanisms within the system.

HS-C3.2: Some systems can only be studied indirectly as they are too small, too large, too fast, or too slow to observe directly.

HS-C3.5: Algebraic thinking is used to examine scientific data and predict the effect of a change in one variable on another (e.g., linear growth vs. exponential growth).

HS-C4: Systems and System Models

HS-C5.2: Changes of energy and matter in a system can be described in terms of energy and matter flows into, out of, and within that system.

HS-C7.1: Much of science deals with constructing explanations of how things change and how they remain stable.

HS-C7.2: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.

HS-C7.3: Feedback (negative or positive) can stabilize or destabilize a system.

Science and Engineering Practices: 7

Asking Questions and Defining Problems, Developing and Using Models, Analyzing and Interpreting Data, Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions, Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information

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HS-P1.4: ask questions to clarify and refine a model, an explanation, or an engineering problem

HS-P2.1: Evaluate merits and limitations of two different models of the same proposed tool, process, mechanism or system in order to select or revise a model that best fits the evidence or design criteria.

HS-P4.1: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.

HS-P4.3: Consider limitations of data analysis (e.g., measurement error, sample selection) when analyzing and interpreting data

HS-P4.5: Evaluate the impact of new data on a working explanation and/or model of a proposed process or system.

HS-P6.4: Apply scientific reasoning, theory, and/or models to link evidence to the claims to assess the extent to which the reasoning and data support the explanation or conclusion.

HS-P8.1: Critically read scientific literature adapted for classroom use to determine the central ideas or conclusions and/or to obtain scientific and/or technical information to summarize complex evidence, concepts, processes, or information presented in a text by paraphrasing them in simpler but still accurate terms.

Grade Level

High School (9-12)
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College Lower (13-14)
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College Upper (15-16)
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Instructional materials can be adapted for use in high school classrooms.

Topics

Global Climate Modeling
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Measuring and Modeling Climate
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Process of Science
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Climate Literacy

This Activity builds on the following concepts of Climate Literacy.

Click a topic below for supporting information, teaching ideas, and sample activities.

Our understanding of climate

Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

There is no teaching guidance to this information, so educators will have to come up with questions or an assignment for students to follow with the website.
It might be helpful to assign as homework when learning about climate systems, models, or other parts of climate change.
Students could progress through the six sections as a class, small group, or individually.
Would also be useful for teacher professional development.

About the Science

This website explains how climate models work through six sections that address: Understanding Climate, Understanding Computer Models, Constructing a Climate Model, Validating Climate Models, Users of Climate Modeling, and Developers of Climate Models.
The information in this resource is based on expert consensus reports from the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, the most recent of which is 'A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling'.
Comments from expert scientist:
Scientific strengths:
Excellent resource.
- Examples of commonly used computer models
- Explanation of processes represented in grid cells directed by mathematical equations, physical and chemical laws

About the Pedagogy

Six-part website would be best placed in a class on technology, weather forecasting, computer modeling, or understanding data. Students who are studying various aspects of climate would benefit from understanding how climate models work.
This resource is truly a "101" of climate modeling, organized in an easy-to-follow sequence from the most elementary of models to an illustration of how complex models are constructed and validated, and how and by whom they are used. It is self-paced, with no external scaffolding for either the instructor or the student, but organized in chunks of video clips, interactive visualizations, and text that can be explored one by one, stopping as needed.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Easy to use, but contains a variety of information and formats.
Technical quality is good. Self-contained resource.

Entered the Collection: May 2018 Last Reviewed: May 2015

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High School (see details)