http://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/IPCC_CCSM3/index.shtml
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Learn more about Teaching Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness»
See how this Animation
supports the Next Generation Science Standards»High School: 6 Disciplinary Core Ideas, 6 Cross Cutting Concepts, 1 Science and Engineering Practice
Topics
Grade Level
Can be expanded to middle school if educator has background knowledge and guides students well.
Climate Literacy
About Teaching Climate Literacy
4e 
4eOther materials addressing 4e
Other materials addressing 5c
Notes From Our Reviewers
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Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy |
Technical Details
Teaching Tips
- This animation could be effectively used in classroom discussions of the broad changes in surface temperature since the late 1800s, through the present, and into the future.
- Works best when students watch one section of the world at a time, i.e., the Arctic first, Antarctica, then their own region of the US.
About the Science
- This animation is based on simulation runs from Version 3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model. This version of the model does not account for deep convection in the atmosphere, or changes in tropical precipitation, albedo, or Arctic sea ice concentration. These features are included in the next generation (Version 4) of this climate model.
- Comments from expert scientist: It's a good summary of what one model projects for future temperature. The video is straightforward and gets the point across well. The important scientific assumptions (i.e. emissions) are explicitly pointed out. It also points out the significant cooling effect of volcanic eruptions, which is rarely shown as explicitly.
About the Pedagogy
- There is no direct pedagogical support for this animation, although there are web links and on-video descriptions that make it clear what the video is illustrating.
Technical Details/Ease of Use
- The layout of the animation is excellent, with the distribution of the surface temperatures on the top layer and global mean below, with appropriate labels highlighting important features of the simulation.
- The Quicktime version or full screen is much better resolution than the one embedded on the page.
- Animation also available here http://scied.ucar.edu/model-simulation-past-present-and-future-climate-change
Next Generation Science Standards See how this Animation supports:
High School
Disciplinary Core Ideas: 6
HS-ESS2.D1:The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.
HS-ESS2.D2:Gradual atmospheric changes were due to plants and other organisms that captured carbon dioxide and released oxygen.
HS-ESS2.D3:Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate.
HS-ESS2.D4:Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.
HS-ESS2.E1:The many dynamic and delicate feedbacks between the biosphere and other Earth systems cause a continual co-evolution of Earth’s surface and the life that exists on it.
HS-ESS3.D1:Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.
Cross Cutting Concepts: 6
HS-C1.5:Empirical evidence is needed to identify patterns.
HS-C2.1:Empirical evidence is required to differentiate between cause and correlation and make claims about specific causes and effects.
HS-C2.2:Cause and effect relationships can be suggested and predicted for complex natural and human designed systems by examining what is known about smaller scale mechanisms within the system.
HS-C2.4:Changes in systems may have various causes that may not have equal effects.
HS-C7.2:Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.
HS-C7.3:Feedback (negative or positive) can stabilize or destabilize a system.
Science and Engineering Practices: 1
HS-P4.1:Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.
