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IPCC Scenarios for the Year 2100

Robert A. Rhode, Globalwarming Art

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The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.

Learn more about Teaching Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness»

ngssSee how this Static Visualization supports the Next Generation Science Standards»
High School: 1 Performance Expectation, 3 Disciplinary Core Ideas, 2 Science and Engineering Practices

Climate Literacy
About Teaching Climate Literacy

Observations, experiments, and theory are used to construct and refine computer models
About Teaching Principle 5
Other materials addressing 5c
Climate models are robust enough to be used for guiding decision and actions as response to climate change
About Teaching Principle 5
Other materials addressing 5e

Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

  • A description of the role of models in climate science should precede the viewing of these graphs. Instructors should review the units used on the graphs.
  • Each of the six scenarios could be assigned to different working groups that could investigate the scenario in depth and then report out to the other groups. Groups could be tasked with identifying which stakeholders might be invested in the scenario. Creative educator could create a debate. Each of the scenarios is only a possible outcome along with a range of decisions that are associated with the scenario.
  • Educator would benefit from making a structured support sheets to aid students.

About the Science

  • A visual way of looking at variations in population, income, energy use, cumulative CO2, distribution efficiency of energy, and fossil fuel portion of energy use projected under each of the six scenarios.
  • Comments from expert scientist: This provides a useful summary of the different IPCC emissions scenarios in an easy to understand format. These scenarios can sometimes be difficult to comprehend for a non-expert, so the graphics and associated text provide a nice way of explaining them.

About the Pedagogy

  • Good content information given for both students and teachers.
  • A good description of the different scenarios is given below the graphical representation. Each scenario represents a vision of the world that might occur if global warming were not a factor. This is an important disclaimer that isn't highly visible and should be clearly emphasized.
  • Links are provided for additional background and reference http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/093.htm1 , which provides users further explanation of each of the scenarios based on the IPCC report.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

  • Graphic is offered in a variety of sizes to save to the desktop.

Next Generation Science Standards See how this Static Visualization supports:

High School

Performance Expectations: 1

HS-ESS3-5: Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 3

HS-ESS2.D3:Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate.

HS-ESS2.D4:Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

HS-ESS3.D1:Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.

Science and Engineering Practices: 2

Analyzing and Interpreting Data

HS-P4.1:Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.

HS-P4.3:Consider limitations of data analysis (e.g., measurement error, sample selection) when analyzing and interpreting data

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