National Institute of Health
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- The article at http://www.climatenetwork.org/sites/default/files/PNAS_IPCC_Reassessing_DANGEROUS_CC.full_.pdf provides ample background for teaching about this figure and the 5 reasons for concern.
About the Science
- This figure is taken from this 2009 article – http://www.climatenetwork.org/sites/default/files/PNAS_IPCC_Reassessing_DANGEROUS_CC.full_.pdf. It updates Figure SPM2 first presented in IPCC TAR SPM of WG II- see http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc5Ftar/src/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/figspm-2.htm.
- The figure describe revisions of the sensitivities of the 5 reasons for concern (RFCs) to increases in global mean temperature and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved since 2001.
- This is based on expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001 including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR4 as well as additional research published since AR4.
- The 5 reasons for concern are Risk to Unique and Threatened Systems, Risk of Extreme Weather Events, Distribution of Impacts, Aggregate Damages, and Risks of Large-Scale Discontinuities.
- Passed initial science review - expert science review pending.
About the Pedagogy
- The original figure was designed primarily to communicate the associations of impacts with increases in global mean temperature and facilitate examination of the underlying evidence for use by decision-makers contemplating responses to these concerns.
- This figure is a revision of that original figure. The differences provide an opportunity to discuss how recent research as changed some of the original assessments.
- May be a little complex; high school (9-12) and college (13-16)
- Full PNAS article at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2648893/
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