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What is the fate of CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion?
http://serc.carleton.edu/quantskills/activities/ffco2.html

Paul Quay, University of Washington. This activity is hosted by the Science Education Resource Center (SERC) at Carleton College

Students consider why the observed atmospheric CO2 increase rate is only ~60% of the CO2 loading rate due to fossil fuel combustion. They develop a box-model to simulate the atmospheric CO2 increase during the industrial era and compare it to the historic observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model is then used to forecast future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 during the next century.

Activity takes 1 to 2 weeks depending on other class responsibilities. Computer with Excel software required.

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Climate Literacy
About Teaching Climate Literacy

Climate is complex
About Teaching Climate Literacy
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Observations, experiments, and theory are used to construct and refine computer models
About Teaching Principle 5
Other materials addressing 5c
Increased GHG concentrations in atmosphere will remain high for centuries and affect future climate
About Teaching Principle 6
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Excellence in Environmental Education Guidelines

1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:G) Drawing conclusions and developing explanations
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G) Drawing conclusions and developing explanations.
1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:C) Collecting information
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C) Collecting information.
1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:E) Organizing information
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E) Organizing information.
1. Questioning, Analysis and Interpretation Skills:F) Working with models and simulations
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F) Working with models and simulations.
2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.1 The Earth as a Physical System:A) Processes that shape the Earth
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A) Processes that shape the Earth.
2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.4 Environment and Society:A) Human/environment interactions
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A) Human/environment interactions.
2. Knowledge of Environmental Processes and Systems:2.4 Environment and Society:E) Environmental Issues
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E) Environmental Issues.

Benchmarks for Science Literacy
Learn more about the Benchmarks

The earth's climates have changed in the past, are currently changing, and are expected to change in the future, primarily due to changes in the amount of light reaching places on the earth and the composition of the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels in the last century has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which has contributed to Earth's warming.
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Computer modeling explores the logical consequences of a set of instructions and a set of data. The instructions and data input of a computer model try to represent the real world so the computer can show what would actually happen. In this way, computers assist people in making decisions by simulating the consequences of different possible decisions.
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Notes From Our Reviewers The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials
Teaching Tips | Science | Pedagogy | Technical Details

Teaching Tips

About the Science

  • In this exercise, students construct a simple ‘box model’ of Earth’s carbon cycle to determine the fate of fossil fuel-derived CO2.
  • The models simulate the exchange of CO2 between Earth’s major carbon reservoirs (i.e., the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere) that are exchanging carbon on time scales relevant to anthropogenic activity.
  • In doing this, students reproduce the basic argument for the human origin of the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
  • The dataset used this exercise was revised in 2009 to include carbon dioxide emissions for 1751-2006.
  • These new data can be used without changes to the instructions.
  • Comments from expert scientist: Involves modeling historic and future CO2 levels, which provides a tool for comparison and allows students to see trends.

About the Pedagogy

  • Background material and activity handout are included with extensive instructions that guide students through several modeling exercises.
  • Questions are included to help them reflect on what they have done.
  • While the process is directive and step-by-step, it can help set the stage for inquiry-based discussions.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

  • The instructions are thorough and complete. Students should be able to complete the exercise mostly on their own.
  • Student handout should be sufficient for instructors to develop an answer key.
  • Instructors can use Excel or Matlab, but students should have some background in whichever program they use.

Related URLs These related sites were noted by our reviewers but have not been reviewed by CLEAN

NOAA CarbonTracker: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/

Performance Expectations

HS-ESS3-6: Use a computational representation to illustrate the relationships among Earth systems and how those relationships are being modified due to human activity.

Disciplinary Core Ideas

HS-ESS2.D1: Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

HS-ETS1.C1: Criteria may need to be broken down into simpler ones that can be approached systematically, and decisions about the priority of certain criteria over others (trade-offs) may be needed

Science and Engineering Practices

HS-P1.6: Ask questions that can be investigated within the scope of the school laboratory, research facilities, or field (e.g., outdoor environment) with available resources and, when appropriate, frame a hypothesis based on a model or theory.

HS-P2.6: Develop and/or use a model (including mathematical and computational) to generate data to support explanations, predict phenomena, analyze systems, and/or solve problems.

HS-P3.4: Select appropriate tools to collect, record, analyze, and evaluate data.

HS-P4.1: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.

HS-P5.2: Use mathematical, computational, and/or algorithmic representations of phenomena or design solutions to describe and/or support claims and/or explanations.

HS-P6.1: Make a quantitative and/or qualitative claim regarding the relationship between dependent and independent variables.

HS-P7.2: Evaluate the claims, evidence, and/or reasoning behind currently accepted explanations or solutions to determine the merits of arguments.

HS-P8.2: Compare, integrate and evaluate sources of information presented in different media or formats (e.g., visually, quantitatively) as well as in words in order to address a scientific question or solve a problem.

Cross-Cutting Concepts

HS-C1.4: Mathematical representations are needed to identify some patterns.

HS-C2.2: Cause and effect relationships can be suggested and predicted for complex natural and human designed systems by examining what is known about smaller scale mechanisms within the system.

HS-C3.5: Algebraic thinking is used to examine scientific data and predict the effect of a change in one variable on another (e.g., linear growth vs. exponential growth).

HS-C4.3: Models (e.g., physical, mathematical, computer models) can be used to simulate systems and interactions—including energy, matter, and information flows—within and between systems at different scales.

HS-C5.1: The total amount of energy and matter in closed systems is conserved.

HS-C7.2: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.


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